The U.S. tried and failed, but now Mexico is set to achieve a historic milestone.
In a landmark election on Sunday, Mexican voters are expected to elect a woman – most likely a woman of Jewish ancestry – as their president, outpacing the United States in this distinction.
Claudia Sheinbaum is the favored candidate to win, positioning herself to become the next negotiator-in-chief with the U.S. on issues ranging from cross-border trade to immigration and fentanyl trafficking, with significant implications for American households.
Here’s what to know about Mexico’s election day and the likely victor.
A woman is poised to become Mexico’s president
The presidential race features three candidates, with Claudia Sheinbaum, a scientist, engineer, and former mayor of Mexico City, leading as the clear front-runner. She shares the populist ideology of her political mentor, current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Trailing in second place is Xóchitl Gálvez, a businesswoman and former senator, ensuring that Mexico will likely elect a female head of state before the U.S. Jorge Álvarez Máynez is the third candidate.
“What happens in Mexico often affects the United States,” said Shannon O’Neil, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The choice of Mexico’s next president is highly significant.”
Political rhetoric in the U.S. often reduces Mexico to stereotypes, but the country’s impact on the U.S. is significant. Mexico-made car parts sustain U.S. autoworkers in Detroit, windmill blades support U.S. clean energy plants, pacemakers save American lives, and $15 avocado toast graces restaurant menus nationwide.
Mexico became the United States’ largest trading partner last year, overtaking China, with nearly $800 billion in annual trade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
However, the relationship is complex. Mexico is the transit country for hundreds of thousands of U.S.-bound migrants, causing repeated humanitarian crises at the border. It is also the source of fentanyl, which claims tens of thousands of American lives each year.
“A president who is open to the United States, willing to cooperate on shared challenges, and eager to seize opportunities is beneficial for the U.S.,” O’Neil said. “Conversely, a president who is more suspicious and reluctant to work with the United States makes things much more difficult.”
Frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum confronts racism and ‘machismo’
Sheinbaum, leading in polls by double digits, is seen as a left-leaning idealist rather than a shrewd deal-maker like López Obrador. Nevertheless, she has pledged to continue his agenda.
At a campaign rally outside Mexico’s colonial-era Palacio Nacional on Wednesday, Sheinbaum, 61, praised López Obrador as the “best president Mexico has ever had,” criticized “neoliberalism,” and promised to extend his efforts to combat inequality.
These measures include cash transfers to some 25 million Mexicans, including the elderly and students, according to O’Neil.
“Humanism means reclaiming rights and eradicating classism, racism, machismo, and discrimination – which all belong to right-wing thinking,” Sheinbaum declared.
While López Obrador’s administration saw reduced security cooperation, such as exiting the Mérida Initiative, he renegotiated the critical free trade agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico and maintained partnerships on slowing migration to the U.S. border.
Mexican voters focused on economy and public safety
The primary concerns for Mexican voters are inflation, economic opportunities, and public safety within their communities, rather than issues important to the U.S. such as trade, immigration, and drug trafficking.
This election is Mexico’s largest ever, with 20,708 offices up for grabs, according to the National Electoral Institute. Campaigns have been marred by violence, including the recent assassination of a mayoral candidate in Guerrero state.
“Whoever wins will face significant security challenges,” said Jennifer Apperti, director of the Texas-Mexico Center at Southern Methodist University. The next administration is expected to focus more on domestic policy than foreign policy. “Two of the biggest domestic issues are: What are we doing about crime and jobs?” she said.
Corruption in Mexico and the insatiable demand for drugs in the U.S. have bolstered criminal organizations, which now control not only the drug trade but also legitimate export industries such as avocados and limes. Extreme violence is common where rival groups fight for territory.
Gálvez, trailing in the polls, is tapping into public discontent. At her final campaign rally in Monterrey, she highlighted the “136,000 killed and 50,000 disappeared” during López Obrador’s term, criticizing his “hugs not bullets” strategy.
Faced with violence and weak economic growth, more than a third of Mexican respondents in a recent Puente Collaborative poll said they would consider migrating to the U.S. for better living conditions.
A path for prosperity in the U.S.-Mexico relationship
Despite these challenges, many Mexicans are finding jobs in the hundreds of assembly plants sending goods to the U.S. or working in booming tourist destinations like Puerto Vallarta and Cancun. The majority of migrants heading to the U.S. from Mexico are now from other countries.
In Mexico City’s Zócalo public square on Wednesday, Lorenzo Pacheco held a sign for Sheinbaum. While he has never worked in the U.S., he recently visited Las Vegas due to the peso’s strength against the dollar. Wearing the maroon color of Sheinbaum’s party, MORENA, he said he would vote for her but noted that the government needs to be tougher on organized crime.
“The United States depends on Mexico as much as Mexico depends on the United States,” Pacheco said. “There should be more openness in trade and tourism and everything that benefits both countries. As one grows, so grows the other.”
